SOLAR TODAY

DAWN OF THE SOLAR ERA
Transitioning to a New Paradigm

Now is the time to establish a strategic plan to address the inevitable end of cheap oil.

By Roscoe G. Bartlett

Oil runs our economy. Oil runs our military. Oil makes and transports the food that we eat. That’s why it makes no sense for our country to wait for global peak oil to impose a radical and permanent end of cheap oil.

Oil production reached a maximum, or peak, in the United States in 1970. It has declined every year since. Oil production has also peaked in 33 of 48 major oil-producing countries. Many experts predict that global peak oil is imminent. Chinese government officials have projected global peak oil in 2012. The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration estimates global peak oil won’t occur until 2037. Only the timing of global peak oil is in dispute among energy experts, but the year won’t be known until after it has occurred. Energy advisor Robert L. Hirsch in his recent World Oil article cautions that peak oil was not apparent in the 48 continental United States, Great Britain or Norway one year in advance (see http://worldoil.com/magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=
2696&MONTH_YEAR=Oct-2005). A 1999 National Petroleum Council report failed to predict the apparent 2005 peak in North American natural gas production.

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From 2003 to 2004, the average increase in oil consumption in Belarus, Kuwait, China and Singapore was 15.9 percent. With worldwide demand increasing, what effect would a decline in oil supply from global peak oil have on oil prices? The National Commission on Energy Policy and Securing America’s Future Energy issued a report on Sept. 6 titled, “Oil Shockwave” (access the report at www.energycommission.org). The commission estimated a 4 percent sustained shortfall in global oil supply would raise the price of oil above $160 per barrel.

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett is a seven-term representative of the Sixth District of Maryland. He has discussed peak oil extensively in a series of 14 special order speeches and hosted an energy conference on Sept. 26. Transcripts, including charts, are posted on Congressman Bartlett’s website at www.bartlett.house.gov.

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